Machine-Learning Models Outperform Clinicians in Predicting Postnatal Growth Failure Among Very Low Birth Weight Infants

Abstract

Background/Objectives: Early detection of postnatal growth failure (PGF) is essential for optimizing nutritional management in preterm infants, as PGF is associated with adverse neurodevelopmental outcomes. Early prediction remains difficult because postnatal growth is influenced by multiple clinical factors including gestation age, birth weight, nutritional status, and comorbidities. Machine-learning approaches have been proposed to predict complex neonatal outcomes. This study compared the predictive performance of neonatologists with that of a machine-learning model for predicting PGF. Methods: PGF was defined as a decrease in weight z-score greater than 1.28 at discharge compared with birth. A machine-learning model based on extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) was trained using a dataset of 7954 very low birth weight (VLBW) infants. Nine neonatologists independently assessed 100 clinical cases through a questionnaire-based evaluation, including 50 patients with PGF. Predictive performance was evaluated using seven metrics: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), accuracy, error rate, positive predictive value (PPV), sensitivity, specificity, and F1 score. Results: The neonatologists had a median of 5 years (range: 4-10 years) of clinical experience. The median prediction score among the neonatologists was 52/100 (range, 44-60), whereas the XGBoost model achieved 79/100. The XGBoost model achieved an AUROC of 0.79, accuracy of 0.79, error rate of 0.21, sensitivity of 0.82, and an F1 score of 0.80, demonstrating superior overall performance compared to the neonatologists. In addition, the XGBoost model had a lower error rate than the neonatologists (0.21 vs. 0.49), whereas specificity (0.76 vs. 0.86) and PPV (0.77 vs. 0.53) did not differ significantly. Conclusions: The machine-learning model demonstrated superior or comparable predictive performance to that of neonatologists in detecting PGF. Machine-learning-based prediction models may support early risk stratification and targeted nutritional management in VLBW infants.