PPubMed14 Aug 2026

Temporal Trends in Mortality Due to Ischemic Heart Disease and Cardiac Arrhythmias in the United States From 1999 to 2023

Taha Alam, Sohaima Kamal, Dhvanit Rajdeep, F. N. U. Areesha, Pardeep Kumar, Hamza Yousuf Ibrahim, Muhammad Suleman Khan, Muhammad Ibrahim Rashid, Alisha Ahmed, Muhammad Raafay Jamil, Nicholas Aderinto, Ehsanullah Alokozay, Caleb Karani, Hassaan Abid

Abstract

1## Introduction Cardiovascular disease remains the leading cause of mortality, morbidity, and disability worldwide with ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke topping the charts . Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) is a parameter used to quantify the years of healthy life lost to disease, disability, or premature demise. The DALYs attributed to IHD have risen consistently since the 20th century reaching an astounding 182 million years globally . According to recent American Heart Association data, IHD was responsible for 40% of US deaths in the year 2022, making it the leading cause of d

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U.S. ischemic heart disease deaths slowed their decline after 2011 and began rising in some groups, while cardiac‑arrhythmia deaths have been increasing, revealing widening disparities.

What’s new

i.Showed that the annual decline in ischemic heart disease mortality dropped from –4.96% (2000‑2011) to –2.66% (2011‑2015)
ii.Identified a reversal from decline to increase for heart‑failure‑related deaths (+3.73% per year 2011‑2015)
iii.Documented rising age‑adjusted mortality for specific arrhythmias (e.g., atrial fibrillation ↑ from 5.2 to 6.3 per 100 000, 2011‑2015)
iv.Highlighted demographic disparities by sex, race‑ethnicity, and age in both IHD and arrhythmia trends

How they did it

Used CDC WONDER death‑certificate data (1999‑2015), calculated age‑adjusted mortality rates to the 2000 U.S. population, and applied Poisson regression with overdispersion to estimate annual percent changes for IHD and arrhythmia sub‑categories.

What they found

IHD age‑adjusted mortality fell from 186.8/100 000 (2000) to 97.2/100 000 (2015)
Mean annual IHD decline: –4.96% (2000‑2011) vs –2.66% (2011‑2015) (p<0.001)
Heart‑failure mortality rose 3.73% annually (2011‑2015) after earlier decline
Atrial fibrillation/flutter mortality rose from 5.2 to 6.3/100 000 (2011‑2015, p<0.001)
In Maine, IHD annual percent change flattened to –1.0% (2011‑2017) after –5.3% (1999‑2011)

Caveats

✕Reliance on death‑certificate coding may misclassify causes
✕ICD‑10 code changes over the study period could affect trend consistency
✕Data only extend to 2015/2017, limiting insight into recent 2020‑2023 patterns
✕No individual‑level risk‑factor or treatment information
✕Arrhythmia sub‑types often grouped, obscuring specific trends

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