PPubMed18 Dec 2012Cited 2.3K×

National, Regional, and Global Trends in Infertility Prevalence Since 1990: A Systematic Analysis of 277 Health Surveys Infertility Trends since 1990

Maya N. Mascarenhas, Seth R. Flaxman, Ties Boerma, Sheryl Vanderpoel, Gretchen A. Stevens, Nicola Low

Abstract

'Gretchen A. Stevens' 'Nicola Low'] Gretchen Stevens and colleagues use information from demographic reproductive health surveys to estimate the global, regional, and country levels, patterns, and trends in infertility between 1990 and 2010.

A figure from National, Regional, and Global Trends in Infertility Prevalence Since 1990: A Systematic Analysis of 277 Health Surveys Infertility Trends since 1990 — fig. from the paper

§ The Valyu brief

The paper, in five minutes

Read from the full text via Valyu Contents

The study estimates global infertility prevalence from 1990‑2010, finding ~42 million couples affected in 1990 and varied regional rates, using 277 surveys and a Bayesian model.

What’s new

i.Compiled and harmonized data from 277 demographic and reproductive health surveys
ii.Defined consistent primary and secondary infertility measures for population‑level analysis
iii.Developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate country‑year‑age specific infertility prevalence
iv.Corrected prevalence estimates for incomplete contraceptive use and couple‑status information
v.Quantified uncertainty from sampling, data gaps, and model assumptions

How they did it

The authors extracted individual‑level data on age, union status, contraceptive use, birth history and child‑seeking desire from eligible surveys and applied uniform definitions of primary and secondary infertility. They then fitted a Bayesian hierarchical model, incorporating regional and global trends and maternal education as a covariate, to generate estimates for every country from 1990 to 2010.

What they found

42.0 million couples (range 39.6‑44.8 million) were unable to have a child in 1990
In high‑income regions the number of infertile couples fell from 4.2 million (1990) to 3.6 million (2010)
Primary infertility prevalence in 2010 ranged from 0.8‑1.0% in Peru, Bolivia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Poland, Kenya and South Korea to ≥3.0% in 13 countries across Eastern Europe, North Africa/Middle East, Oceania and Sub‑Saharan Africa

Caveats

✕Data gaps for many countries, especially high‑income and Central/Eastern Europe
✕Reliance on proxy measures (union status, contraceptive use) to infer exposure to pregnancy
✕Potential reporting inaccuracies in survey responses about births, contraceptive use and marital status
✕Inability to capture male infertility, intermittent condom use, or couples not in a union for five years

§ The Valyu brief

Reading the full paper and taking notes. This takes a few seconds…

§ Ask this paper

Ask a question about this paper

Valyu reads the full text and answers from what the paper actually says.

§ Related work in other archives

National, Regional, and Global Trends in Infertility Prevalence Since 1990: A Systematic Analysis of 277 Health Surveys Infertility Trends since 1990

The paper, in five minutes

Ask a question about this paper

Similar papers in all four archives

The paper, in five minutes

Similar papers in all four archives