PPubMed1 May 2021Cited 21×

Risk for International Importations of Variant SARS-CoV-2 Originating in the United Kingdom Risk for International Importations of Variant SARS-CoV-2 Originating in the United Kingdom

Zhanwei Du, Lin Wang, Bingyi Yang, Sheikh Taslim Ali, Tim K. Tsang, Songwei Shan, Peng Wu, Eric H.Y. Lau, Benjamin J. Cowling, Lauren Ancel Meyers

Abstract

'Songwei Shan' 'Peng Wu' 'Eric H.Y. Lau' 'Benjamin J. Cowling' 'Lauren Ancel Meyers'] A fast-spreading severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 variant identified in the United Kingdom in December 2020 has raised international alarm. We analyzed data from 15 countries and estimated that the chance that this variant was imported into these countries by travelers from the United Kingdom by December 7 is >50%.

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We analyzed data from 15 countries and estimated that the chance that this variant was imported into these countries by travelers from the United Kingdom by December 7 is >50%

What’s new

i.Estimated the probability of 501Y variant importation from the UK to 15 countries using Facebook mobility data.
ii.Estimated local prevalence of the 501Y variant in 11 countries using COVID‑19 hospital admission data.
iii.Identified that by December 7 the importation risk exceeded 50% for the studied countries.

How they did it

The authors combined Facebook Data for Good mobility data on trips from the United Kingdom with the changing proportion of the 501Y variant in the UK to estimate importation probabilities for 15 countries. They also used COVID‑19 hospital admission data and assumed the 501Y variant is 50 % more transmissible to estimate local prevalence in 11 countries.

What they found

By December 7 the estimated chance of importation of the variant into each of the 15 countries was >50%.
By October 22, at least 10 of the 15 countries had a ≥50% chance of receiving one imported case.
By November 1, the ≥50% risk threshold was exceeded for all 15 countries.
As of December 7, Cyprus had the highest expected prevalence: 13 cases per 100,000 (95 % CI 0‑79) and 6 % of cases (95 % CI 0‑38%).

Caveats

✕Mobility data may be demographically biased due to the Facebook user profile.
✕Assumes all introductions occurred via asymptomatic travelers from the UK, ignoring other sources.
✕Assumes a 10‑day lag between infection and hospitalization and identical natural history for 501Y and 501N variants.
✕Sensitivity analysis suggests these assumptions may cause a downward bias in estimated global expansion.

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Risk for International Importations of Variant SARS-CoV-2 Originating in the United Kingdom Risk for International Importations of Variant SARS-CoV-2 Originating in the United Kingdom

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