24 papers · ranked by Valyu relevance
Matteo Iacopini, Francesco Ravazzolo, Luca Rossini
This paper proposes a novel asymmetric continuous probabilistic score (ACPS) for evaluating and comparing density forecasts. It extends the proposed score and defines a weighted version, which emphasizes regions of interest, such as the tails or the center of a variable's range. A test is also introduced to…
Hiroaki Minoura, Ryo Yonetani, Mai Nishimura, Yoshitaka Ushiku
Forecasting human activities observed in videos is a long-standing challenge in computer vision, which leads to various real-world applications such as mobile robots, autonomous driving, and assistive systems. In this work, we present a new visual forecasting task called crowd density forecasting. Given a video of a…
Shaylah Mutschler, Marcin Pilinski, Sean Bruinsma, Eric Sutton + 7 more
In Low Earth Orbit (LEO), atmospheric drag is the largest contributor to trajectory prediction error. The current thermospheric density model used by the Combined Space Operations Center (CSpOC) in operations is the High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM). Since HASDM is not available for use outside of the US…
Andrea Carriero, Todd E. Clark, Massimiliano Marcellino
Title: Summary The paper develops a method for producing current quarter forecasts of gross domestic product growth with a (possibly large) range of available within-the-quarter monthly observations of economic indicators, such as employment and industrial production, and financial indicators, such as stock prices and…
Aaron Rumack, Ryan J. Tibshirani, Roni Rosenfeld, Cecile Viboud
Distributional forecasts are important for a wide variety of applications, including forecasting epidemics. Often, forecasts are miscalibrated, or unreliable in assigning uncertainty to future events. We present a recalibration method that can be applied to a black-box forecaster given retrospective forecasts and…
David J. Gondelach, Richard Linares
Inaccurate estimates of the thermospheric density are a major source of error in low Earth orbit prediction. To improve orbit prediction, real-time density estimation is required. In this work, we develop a reduced-order dynamic model for the thermospheric density by computing the main spatial modes of the atmosphere…
Parul V. Patil, Robert B. Gramacy, Leah R. Johnson
Ecological time series are often unevenly sampled in time. That is, because the sampling processes used are resource intensive, data may be collected infrequently, or with adaptive frequencies triggered by presence of a target variable. When the data are irregularly spaced, standard time series methods may not be…
Logan C. Brooks, David C. Farrow, Sangwon Hyun, Ryan J. Tibshirani + 2 more
'Roni Rosenfeld' 'Cecile Viboud'] Accurate and reliable forecasts of seasonal epidemics of infectious disease can assist in the design of countermeasures and increase public awareness and preparedness. This article describes two main contributions we made recently toward this goal: a novel approach to probabilistic…
Lingzhi Wang, Hichem Omrani, Zhao Zhao, Dante Francomano + 3 more
southeastern Wisconsin, USA Urban densification dynamics and future modes Authors: ['Lingzhi Wang' 'Hichem Omrani' 'Zhao Zhao' 'Dante Francomano' 'Ke Li' 'Bryan Pijanowski' 'Changshan Wu'] Urban change (urbanization) has dominated land change science for several decades. However, few studies have focused on what many…
Tomoya Mori, Daisuke Murakami
This study develops a statistical model that integrates economic agglomeration theory and power-law distributions of city sizes to project future population distribution on 1-km grid cells. We focus on Japan – a country at the forefront of rapid population decline. Drawing on official population projections and…
Fumiyasu Makinoshima, Yusuke Oishi
Unlike conventional crowd simulations for what-if analysis, agent-based crowd simulations for real-time applications are an emerging research topic and an important tool for better crowd managements in smart cities. Recent studies have attempted to incorporate the real-time crowd observations into crowd simulations for…
Andrew T. Tredennick, Mevin B. Hooten, Peter B. Adler
Rapid environmental change has generated growing interest in forecasts of future popu lation trajectories. Traditional population models built with detailed demographic obser vations from one study site can address the impacts of environmental change at particular locations, but are difficult to scale up to the…
Marcus J. Hamilton, Robert S. Walker, Briggs Buchanan, Damian E. Blasi + 1 more
Estimating the total human population size (i.e., abundance) of the preagricultural planet is important for setting the baseline expectations for human-environment interactions if all energy and material requirements to support growth, maintenance, and well-being were foraged from local environments. However…
Juan S. Vargas Soto, Rowshyra A. Castañeda, Nicholas E. Mandrak, Péter K. Molnár
Remote detectors are being used increasingly often to study aquatic and aerial species, for which movement is significantly different from terrestrial species. While terrestrial camera-trapping studies have shown that capture frequency, along with the species’ movement speed and detector specifications can be used to…
Authors not listed
Accurately modeling volume-dependent properties of water remains a challenge for density functional theory (DFT), with widely used functionals failing to reproduce key features of the water density isobar, including its shape, density and temperature of the density maximum. Here, we compare the performance of the…
Authors not listed
Exact determination of the electronic density of molecules and materials would provide direct access to accurate bonded and non-bonded interatomic interactions by virtue of the Hellman-Feynman theorem. However, density-functional approximations (DFA) -- the workhorse methods for the electronic structure of atomistic…
M. G. Efford
Spatially explicit capture–recapture (SECR) methods are used widely to estimate animal population density and related parameters. Maximum likelihood has been applied to two flavors of SECR model - a full model that includes absolute density as a spatially varying parameter, and a model conditional on the number of…
Henock M. Mboko, Mouhamadou A. M. T. Balde, Babacar Mbaye Ndiaye
We study the analysis of all the movements of the population on the basis of their mobility from one node to another, to observe, measure, and predict the impact of traffic according to this mobility. The frequency of congestion on roads directly or indirectly impacts our economic or social welfare. Our work focuses on…
Sterling Baird, Taylor Sparks
A large collection of element-wise planar densities for compounds obtained from the Materials Project is calculated using brute force computational geometry methods. We demonstrate that the element-wise max lattice plane densities can be useful as machine learning features. The methods described here are implemented in…
Onofrio Mazzarisi, Rossana Droghetti, Hebe Carmichael, Luca Ciandrini + 7 more
Population growth slows as population density increases, and the form of this dependence can sensitively influence species coexistence, conservation, and resource management. Yet the processes shaping density-dependent growth—and whether it exhibits general features across ecological systems—remain unclear. Here, we…
Jessica Yu, Paul Gustafson, Martino Tran, Michael Brauer + 1 more
'Paul B. Tchounwou'] Background: Understanding and managing the impacts of population growth and densification are important steps for sustainable development. This study sought to evaluate the health trade-offs associated with increasing densification and to identify the optimal balance of neighbourhood densification…
Ghislain Vieilledent, Fabian Jörg Fischer, Jérôme Chave, Daniel Guibal + 2 more
Basic wood density is an important ecological trait for woody plants. It is used to characterize species performance and fitness in community ecology, and to compute tree and forest biomass in carbon cycle studies. While wood density has been historically measured at 12% moisture, it is convenient for ecological…
Nicolas Castel, François-Xavier Coudert
While amorphous metal–organic frameworks (a-MOFs) form an emerging class of materials of growing interest, their structural characterization remains experimentally and computationally challenging challenging. Out of the many molecular simulation methods that exist to model these disordered materials, one strategy…
Melanie T. Huynh, Nickolas Gantzler, Samuel Hough, David Roundy + 2 more
Xenon is used as a propellant for spacecraft. Conventionally, xenon is compressed to high pressures (75-300 bar) for bulk storage onboard the spacecraft. An adsorbed xenon storage system based on nanoporous materials (NPMs) could, potentially, (i) reduce the storage pressures, (ii) allow for thinner-walled and lighter…